As Jenson Button moves inexorably closer towards this year’s Formula One drivers’ title, so things are beginning to fall into place as to who will be driving where next year.

No, I don’t know how I’m still winning, either!

The worst kept secret in F1 for a long time – that Fernando Alonso is to move to Ferrari for 2010 to partner the returning Felipe Massa – is apparently to be confirmed this week, ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix at Suzuka. Once that move is in place, it means all the other pieces of the jigsaw can slot into place.

Kimi Raikonnen, it seems, will leave Ferrari a year early and re-join McLaren alongside Lewis Hamilton. Where Heikki Kovalainen goes if this happens isn’t clear as yet. At one point it seemed that Nico Rosberg was on his way to McLaren, but now it is more likely that he will join Jenson Button at Brawn. With both teams using Mercedes-Benz engines, a German driver is always going to be attractive from a marketing point of view, not that Rosberg doesn’t have enough talent to warrant either drive anyway.

This is all a bit harsh on poor Rubens Barrichello who is currently a contender for the world championship with Brawn. He might find himself in the unenviable position of winning the title but being shown the door by his team. This isn’t unheard of in F1 circles – it happened to Damon Hill at Williams at the end of 1996 and to Nigel Mansell before him in 1992.

Taxi? You need Taxi?

These moves mean that there will be vacancies at Renault (assuming they remain in the sport after the ‘crashgate’ affair) and Williams, with both seats at the latter up for grabs since Kazuki Nakajima is unlikely to be retained if the team’s engine deal with Toyota comes to an end, as is rumoured.

Red Bull will retain Vettel and Mark Webber and its sister team Toro Rosso will probably hold on to its current lie-up but elsewhere things are less clear. The team formerly known as BMW Sauber has been sold to a company called Qadbak Investments of which little is known, and has secured a deal to use Ferrari engines if it is able to obtain an extra slot on the F1 grid next year. The future of Toyota is always being discussed and, in particular, the future of Jarno Trulli. If the team stays, expect to see Timo Glock retained though. Finally force India could do a lot worse than to stick with Adrian Sutil and Tonio Liuzzi.

I’m the new Schumacher, and I’m nice

But don’t forget we have four new teams joining next year – US F1, Campos GP, Manor and Lotus, none of which has revealed its driver line-up. It will also be interesting to see whether or not they all make it onto the grid next year as planned…

One final thought to note regarding this year is that, had the ‘medals’ system for deciding the drivers’ title been adopted as was first proposed at the beginning of this year, Button would already have been crowned champion as no one can now beat his tally of six victories. At the moment, Sebastian Vettel, Lewis Hamilton and Rubens Barrichello have each scored two wins and there are only three races left to run.

Will it happen?