by Adam Dunning September 21st, 2009
The impending economic recovery coupled with high Asian demand has aircraft manufacturer Airbus forecasting a take-off in sales.
The latest predictions are a far cry from the recent outlook announced by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) who estimates a loss of close to £10 billion this year. IATA claims the current air travel crisis is worse even than post 9/11 on the back of unprecedented airline closures.
Despite the worldwide downturn, Airbus is confident of a 5% rise in passenger numbers in 2010 primarily due to greater traffic in China and India. Traditionally, airline passenger growth has doubled annually prior to the recession but authorities claim that the Indian and Chinese markets were virtually non-existent until recently. The region is now the biggest growth market and the forecasts may even be on the conservative side. The new major market players are basing their numbers on a surge in budget carriers and the replacement of aging fleets. Airbus is anticipating 25,000 new planes to be ordered over the next two decades, considerably higher than recent forecasts. The group has also acknowledged that there will likely be further closures in the immediate future.
The boom in low cost airlines has been seen most significantly in the U.S, where carriers such as Spirit and Southwest have seen the market share for budget travel rise to nearly 35%, roughly on par with the European sector. Presently the Asian market is sitting around 10-12% which has been identified as the key growth area in the next decade.
Airbus’s predictions of increased growth mirror the recent outlook from main competitor Boeing who also recently announced a major upturn in orders.