by Adam Dunning November 27th, 2009
According to leading plane manufacturer Boeing the forecast for the next 20 years will see a huge demand from Southeast Asia and the Pacific for new airlines at an estimated cost of US $330 billion.
Boeing’s market data analysis and forecasting was issued this week by Marketing Vice President Randy Tinseth with the focus being squarely on the emerging Southeast Asian commercial market. The group has said that by the year 2028 they will need to supply some 29,000 new aircraft at a total value of over US $3 trillion.
Tinseth said that almost one-third of the group’s 20-year forecast had already been filled and that the existing backlog for orders is well balanced across global markets. Currently Boeing has a backlog of around 3,400 planes at an estimated value of US $254 billion.
Boeing was careful to point out that the recession still hangs heavily over many sectors of the aviation industry. The volatile business environment seen in recent times has meant that passenger and cargo traffic has declined while fuel costs remain unstable. A full recovery on a global scale is not forecasted till well into 2010. Tinseth however declared that the economic downturn had reached the bottom and the slow road to recovery was certainly underway, although it is expected to be a long and at times painful process.
Southeast Asia presents its own unique problems, with air travel growth forecasted to outpace the region’s economic growth. The economy is on track for a projected 4.6% growth over the next 2 decades whereas air travel growth is expected to be above 6.5%. The greater Asia-Pacific region is set to expand at 6.9% for the similar period.
Travel volume across Asia Pacific is already large and one of the fastest growing regions in the world market. Boeing anticipates that in 20 years time Asia Pacific air travel will account for 41% of the world’s total traffic, a large increase from the existing level of around 32%.
In less than a decade from now Asia Pacific travel will be the world’s largest market.